Election Results

If you haven't heard by now, Barack Obama has defeated John McCain to become the 44th President of the United States. The first bi-racial President. I don't think many Americans could say that they didn't see this coming. Obama has held significant leads over John McCain in electoral and popular polls for the past six weeks or so.

It was a short election night. The first votes were counted around 7pm, giving Obama an early victory in Vermont, while McCain won the uncontested state of Kentucky. It wasn't long before Pennsylvania was put in the blue column, and McCain's chance of victory began to look slim. They started counting the votes in Indiana, with Obama and McCain neck and neck. Obama held a commanding lead as the votes began to be counted in Florida. When they called Ohio for Obama at around 10pm eastern time, I knew the race was over. Obama would be the next President of the United States.

Obama won in an electoral landslide: 364 electoral votes to McCain's 163, twenty six states and one tie - Missouri. McCain just might win Missouri, as he has a small lead there and the votes are still being counted. The Show Me didn't live up to it's repuation of voting for the winner. Ohio prevailed, though. Next time, Missouri, next time.

For the first time in 40 years, Virginia voted for a Democrat, 22 years for North Carolina, and 44 years for Indiana. Colorado went blue, the first time in 16 years. Obama defeated McCain by landslide margins in both Nevada and New Mexico, 56-42 and 57-42 respectively. The Hispanic vote really helped him there. McCain won by a weak 9 percent in his home state of Arizona. I'm disappointed that Arizonans didn't send him a message. Oh well. Rumor has it Janet Napolitano is going to run for congress when her gubernatorial term is up in 2010. She will probably take McCain's senate seat if he decides against running for reelection. If he does, she'll probably defeat him.

It is likely, that for the first time in the state's history, Nebraska will split its electoral votes. Obama will be awarded one, bringing his electoral vote total to 365.

Obama won the popular vote, 53 to 46 percent, garnering 64, nearly 65 million votes to McCain's 57 million. Obama outperformed Kerry among virtually all demographics. He lead strongly among women, independents, Hispanics and people under 64.

Democrats increased their majority in the house and gained 5 seats in the senate, and a few of them are still being contested.

I bet the Republicans are fuming. They were hoping so much for a Bradley effect. Much to their chagrin, Obama performed as expected, and even outperformed the polls in several states. Obama won Pennsylvania by 11 points, 55-44 - stronger than Gore AND Kerry's wins, 51-46 and 51-49 respectively. For the most part, the polls were right on the money. Who said polls don't mean anything?

Unfortunately, my predictions were off quite a bit. Although, I nailed the popular vote, the senate seat and house projections were off by one, though there are still some seats undecided. Nate Silver at FiveThirtyEight.com correctly predicted the popular vote and incorrectly projected the winners of Missouri and Indiana. The site pretty much lives up to its slogan, Election Projections. Done Right. Dissapointedly Obama didn't win Georgia. The voter turnout wasn't as high as many expected. I expected 180 million people to turnout, only 130 or so million people did so. Silly me. How many registered voters are there in the country anyway? They said a lot of Republicans stayed home. I guess they were disgusted. Do you blame them? I don't. They got their asses whooped.

Here's the electoral results (map provided by Electoral-Vote):


Won't it feel good to have a President that can inspire us? One with great orotorical skills. One we actually care to listen to and who makes you listen? With McCain, it would have been Bush all over again. I'm glad America made the right choice this time. It was a clear mandate. America has spoken. The country is screaming for change. And as Obama said in his victory speech, change has come.

My prediction for the election

Here's my predictions for Election Day:

Obama will win the popular vote 52-46 and the electoral vote 396-142.

Democrats will have 57 seats in the senate and 249 in the house.

Here's the map:

Much to McCain's chagrin, he will not carry Pennsylvania and will not win the Presidency.

Obama will win Florida 49-45, an unexpected upset in Georgia, a victory by 2 points, North Carlina 2 points, Virginia 5 points, Pennsylvania 7 points, Ohio 5 points, Indiana 2 points, Missouri 2 points, Colorado by 5 points, Nevada 4 points, New Mexico 9 points, and somewhat predicted upsets in Montana and North Dakota by a few points. Oh, and I forgot New Hampshire, I am sure Obama will win there by about 7 points.

Around 8pm they will call Virginia for Obama, along with Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Florida. They will announce Obama the winner by 9pm.

Voter turnout will be historic, 180 million Americans will have voted in this election.

McCain will concede around midnight.

Happy voting everyone.

Myth about the 2004 election

There is a myth about the 2004 election: John Kerry was ahead in the polls throughout the 2004 campaign and still lost the election. I'm glad someone finally debunked the myth that Kerry was ahead in Oct 2004 going into election day. Some of us know that is not true. Kerry was never consistently ahead the way Obama has been this election year.

Take a look at this graph provided by RCP. It shows that Bush was ahead in the popularity polls consistently from September until election day in 2004.




Now compare that to this year (graph provided by pollster):

As you can see from the graph above, Obama has been consistently ahead since September (and since the beginning of the primaries in January) just as Bush was ahead from September till election day in 2004.

Now, if that's not enough to convince you, let's look at the electoral polls:

2004:



2008:

Both graphs provided by Electoral Vote.

As you can see in the 2004 graph, Bush lead Kerry consistently from September till election day and ultimately won the election. The 2008 graph shows that Obama has lead McCain consistently as far back as April. Kerry never had the leads that Obama has had in this election. If you want to look at this election from a 2004 perspective, Obama = Bush, McCain = Kerry, although Obama has had the upper hand in this race from the beginning.

Now if anyone claims that the polls showed Kerry leading Bush in all polls in 2004, direct them here.

The Conventions

Have you been watching the conventions? Particularly the Republican convention that's taking place in Minneapolis this week. Did you see all these crazed supporters waving their signs? Some of them homemade and many of them provided by the campaigns. Let me ask you a question. What is the point of waving these signs around in a building full of people supporting the same candidate? I do not understand this. Who are they going to convince with the signs? Is it to convince themselves that they're doing the right thing by supporting their candidate? "If we all carry a sign then it must mean we're doing the right thing."

I mean, if the convention hall was hosting a competitive rally, with Obama supporters, McCain supporters, Ron Paul and Bob Barr supporters, then it would make sense. Otherwise, I think it's a waste of time waving around a sign showing you're no different than the rest of the brain dead supporters. You support John McCain. I get it. That is why you are at the Republican convention in the first place. Why else would you be there? To protest? The protesters usually get thrown out, so I don't see the point in going. I figure, if you're in a building full of fellow supporters, why bother waving a sign? Put down the sign and save your arm. I bet there were a lot of sore arms at the end of the day.

Am I the only one that feels this way?

Media Coverage on Election '08

If you have been paying attention this election season, then you know it's been a wild ride. And if you haven't, you must be living in a cave if you don't know what is going on, because the election coverage is EVERYWHERE. The media coverage is a little ridiculous. Does anyone care how many houses John McCain owns? Or what car he drives? Are they really interested in this stuff? You don't see the media covering the issues, though. Where does Barack Obama or John McCain stand on such and such an issue? Ask anyone and see what the response is. Chances are they don't know. I think the media should focus on the issues and ignore this celebrity gossip crap. If they are going to cover the campaigns, then they need to do it right and inform the citizens so that they can make an educated decision come November. Now, I know people should do their own research, but how many people actually do it? Not many. They rely on what the media has to say. And one only has to look at the outcome of the 2000 and 2004 elections to understand this.