Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Electoral Analysis

The latest polls show that McCain is in trouble in Georgia and other, formerly Republican strongholds. McCain leads Obama by a mere 2 points (48.8-46.2) in Georgia, and 5 points (49-44) in his home state of Arizona, where a few polls show the race as close as 2 points.

Both candidates are tied in usually reliable Republican states like Indiana, Montana, North Dakota and the ultimate swing state of Missouri. McCain has weak leads in South Dakota 50-41, Mississippi, 53-45 and West Virginia, 51-43.

Obama is ahead in every swing state, with his lead growing every day and is getting stronger in Democratic states, while McCain is getting weaker in Republican states.

Latest polls:

State Obama McCain

Nevada: 50 43
Colorado: 51 44
Ohio: 50 43
Virginia: 51 44
N. Carolina: 49 47
Florida: 48 45

Obama is strong in all of the states Gore and Kerry won in 2000 and 2004. As long as Obama hangs onto all the states Gore won in 2000, which total 264 electoral votes, he will need to pick up just one more state equaling 6 electoral votes or more to get to the magic number of 270.

Here are the states Obama has a chance of picking up, in addition to the states Gore won in 2000:

Virginia with its 13 electoral votes, on top of the 264 safe Gore electoral votes, would put Obama over the top with 277 electoral votes.

Colorado, a state with 9 electoral votes, would give Obama a 273-265 lead over his opponent. There is a good chance of a pickup in the state, as he has been leading consistently since February.

Nevada would put Obama at the 269 mark, and if he doesn't pick up Virginia, or any other battleground state, then the race would be a tie and this could benefit Obama with a Democratic congress.

Ohio would clinch it for Obama. With it's 20 electoral votes, he wouldn't need to pick up any other state. McCain needs Ohio to win and without it there is just no realistic victory for McCain.

North Carolina, with it's 15 electoral votes would be a big blow to McCain and like Ohio, McCain can't win without it.

Florida, the state's 27 electoral votes that determined the 2000 election, is a Republican stronghold, and without it, Bush wouldn't have won and McCain can't win without it, either.

A Georgia win for Obama would cripple McCain with it's 15 electoral votes. And a win here is possible, with a high turn out among African American voters. African Americans make up 29% of the electorate in the state and is enough to swing the state to the blue column.

Missouri is the ultimate swing state, with it's 11 electoral votes, has voted for the ultimate winner of the election for the past 100 years, getting it wrong just once in 1956. It will be interesting to see if the "Show Me" state lives up to it's reputation of voting for the winner.

Indiana hasn't voted for a Democrat since 1964. And with it's 11 electoral votes, could help put Obama over the top. The chances of Indiana going blue this year are very good. Bush won Indiana by landslide margins in 2000 and 2004. Obama being ahead in the polls there by as many as 7 points is not a good sign for McCain.

A loss in Arizona would kill McCain. McCain needs every electoral vote he can get and without his home state's 10 electoral votes he is finished. Due to the changing demographics in the state, Arizona would have been a swing state in the beginning, but in this late stage of the game Obama has now been able to turn it "purple."

Obama has a knack at turning Republican strongholds purple, and North Dakota and Montana are no exception. Obama and McCain are currently tied there, and should Obama pull off a win in both of these states while not winning any other swing state, with their combined 6 electoral votes, they could tip the election in Obama's favor.

The polls close around 7-7:30 PM on the east coast. If they announce that Obama wins any of the following states: Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Ohio. You can rest assured that Obama will be the next President of the United States and it will be a relatively short election night. I'm hoping this is the case, if not, we're going to be in for a long, nail biter.

Regardless of what the polls say right now, this election is not over. Don't become complacent. Make sure you get out and vote. Make sure to get your friends and family to the polls as well.

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